Market Musings
The IBD market call remains "Market
in Confirmed Uptrend."
While the market makes new highs, understand that the
U.S. dollar has lost 19% of its value since 2020 thanks to
inflation.
The STI (Simple Timing Indicator) which is the number of "A" rated
stocks in the IBD database has risen close to the green
line.
In the State of the Union speech, Biden promised higher
corporate taxes and more regulation which should not help
investors.
Hamas broke off talks on freeing the hostages as the
conflict seems likely to expand throughout the Middle East.
China continues to escalate threats throughout the Near East
raising fears of a wider military conflict. China's economy
is struggling and its birthrate is in free fall.
The Russian-Ukraine conflict continues to drag on. Many U.S.
politicians are becoming alarmed at the conflicts cost to U.S. finances.
Rebuilding our military weapon
stockpiles is going to be expensive and will take time.
In the meantime, the undocumented invasion continues at the
U.S. borders and it is becoming a major wakeup call in the
upcoming elections.
No one really knows how many foreign terrorists and/or
military-trained Chinese have slipped through the border.
Recent vids of armed illegals are making the rounds of the
internet. Is it 8 million or 10 million illegals in 2023?
No one knows but the U.S. government is catching(?) and releasing
... the Democrats are responsible!
Do not forget that about 25% of the stock markets value is held
by only 7 stocks ... danger ahead?
Have we reached the Minsky moment? The dollar's reserve
status is slipping away taking the U.S. economy towards a slippery
slope. Oil sales are no longer settled in only U.S. dollars.
Gold made a new all-time high last week before the paper
short-sellers entered to take it down.
Dare I say that it will be
at least another year of dismal U.S. and world economic growth.
And that is if we don't enter a major military war with either
Russia or China.
Do not be surprised if the NASDAQ falls through 8,000, the SPX
to 2,500 and the
DJIA sees the 25,000 level.
Remember -- "Only purchasing power counts!"
It is difficult to find long-term trading opportunities with
the future so uncertain.
By any reasonable measure, this market is
dangerous.
Be careful ....
To review the 03/08/2024 FlowChart, click
here.
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